Michael A. Rawlins
    Michael A. Rawlins

Curriculum Vitae



Media Outreach
      Climate Change and Associated Impacts Across the Northeast US

The Northeast US is home to over 55 million people. Changes connected to a warming climate include increases in precipitation, more extreme heat events, and rising sea levels. Our understanding of potential changes in air temperature and precipitation across the region and at sub-annual time scales has been advanced with the development and application of high resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs). Projections of mid-century changes in seasonal air temperature and precipitation from a suite of RCMs forced with the SRES A2 scenario for greenhouse gas emissions suggest warming of 2-4C and very likely wetter winters.

Annual NEP

CAPTION: Change (oC, 2041-2070 minus 1971-2000) in seasonal temperature from the ensemble mean of the nine model pairs from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). Significance determined following criteria described by Tebaldi et al. (2011}. Changes are significant at the 95% level for all grids (shown stippled) across the Northeast. Details on meaning behind the uncertainty and significance logic are found in Rawlins et al. (2012).

Annual NEP

CAPTION: Relative percent change (2041--2070) minus (1971-2000) in seasonal precipitation from the ensemble mean of the nine model pairs. Units are percent of present-day precipitation. Areas in white represent a disagreement in the sign of change.

Rawlins, M. A., R. S. Bradley, H. F. Diaz, 2012: Assessment of regional climate model simulation estimates over the northeast United States, Journal of Geophysical Research, 117, D23112, doi:10.1029/2012JD018137

Tebaldi, C., J. M. Arblaster, and R. Knutti, 2011:, Mapping model agreement on future climate projections, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38 L23701, \doi{10.1029/2011GL049863}.